Weekend Rain Chances Continue Across South Texas as Cold Front Stalls

Key Points

• San Antonio recorded 2.12 inches of rain on Thursday, October 1, followed by roughly another half-inch on Friday.
• The combined rainfall made the beginning of October the third-rainiest start to the month on record for San Antonio, according to the San Antonio Express-News.
• The first significant cold front of the autumn is expected to stall across parts of South-Central Texas, keeping scattered showers possible through the weekend.
• Saturday and Sunday are expected to bring generally limited rainfall, with many locations remaining dry.
• San Antonio is expected to see temperatures mainly in the low 80s, with breezy winds and occasional scattered showers.
• Rainfall between Saturday and Sunday is expected to remain below a quarter-inch in most locations, although isolated areas northwest of San Antonio could receive an inch or more.
• A substantially drier weather pattern is expected to develop from Monday, bringing mostly sunny conditions through much of the following week.
• San Antonio’s 2026 rainfall has remained above its typical annual precipitation level, with the city normally recording about 32 inches in a year.

Edition Online (EO) October 3, 2026 – South Texas is heading into the weekend with additional rain chances after the region experienced a notably wet start to October following the arrival of the first significant cold front of the autumn. San Antonio recorded 2.12 inches of rainfall on Thursday and approximately another half-inch on Friday, while the National Weather Service continued to monitor conditions associated with the stalled front. The weekend forecast calls for scattered showers rather than widespread heavy rain, with generally low rainfall totals, breezy winds and temperatures in the low 80s. Drier conditions are expected to become established from Monday.

Why Are Rain Chances Continuing Across South Texas This Weekend?

The continuing rain threat is linked to the behaviour of the first significant cold front of the autumn as it moves into and stalls across parts of South-Central Texas.

According to Anthony Franze of the San Antonio Express-News, the front is expected to remain stalled across portions of the region, allowing additional moisture and scattered showers to remain possible during the weekend. Franze reported that not every location will receive measurable rainfall and that overall totals are expected to remain low for most areas.

The weekend situation differs considerably from the heavier rainfall experienced earlier in the week. The National Weather Service’s Austin/San Antonio office said Saturday would remain mostly cloudy across much of South-Central Texas, with rain continuing in parts of the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande areas. Isolated showers or storms could also occur near the Coastal Plains and the Interstate 35 corridor, particularly during the afternoon.

That means rainfall will be uneven. Some communities may receive showers while nearby areas remain dry.

How Much Rain Did San Antonio Receive at the Start of October?

San Antonio experienced a substantial amount of rain as October began.

The city’s official weather observations show 2.12 inches of precipitation on October 1, followed by 0.49 inches on October 2 at the San Antonio station. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet’s climate record for San Antonio lists those daily totals and confirms the unusually wet opening to the month.

Anthony Franze of the San Antonio Express-News reported that the 2.12 inches recorded Thursday, combined with roughly another half-inch on Friday, placed San Antonio’s beginning to October as the third-rainiest start to October on record.

The rainfall followed a period of active weather across South-Central Texas. Earlier reports from the San Antonio Express-News described the cold front as producing heavy rainfall and raising flooding concerns, with the National Weather Service forecasting widespread rainfall and isolated substantially higher totals in some areas.

By Friday afternoon, the immediate flood threat had begun to decrease. The San Antonio Express-News reported that a flood advisory for San Antonio had expired at 2 p.m., although scattered showers and weak storms remained possible and a flood watch was still in effect through the evening.

What Is the Forecast for San Antonio on Saturday?

Saturday is expected to bring a mixture of cloud cover and scattered showers, rather than another widespread period of heavy rainfall.

Franze reported that a few scattered showers could occur during the early hours of Saturday, with a 20% to 30% chance of rain in San Antonio through 9 a.m. Conditions were expected to remain partly to mostly cloudy during the morning, while temperatures stayed in the low to mid-70s.

Some showers could continue into the afternoon, although the reported chance of rain for San Antonio was around 20%.

Temperatures were expected to reach approximately 81 to 83 degrees Fahrenheit, keeping the afternoon slightly cooler than typical early-October conditions. Winds were also expected to remain breezy, with gusts potentially reaching 20 to 25 mph.

The National Weather Service’s Saturday forecast similarly indicated mostly cloudy conditions across much of the wider region, with isolated showers or storms possible along the I-35 corridor and more persistent rainfall in other parts of South-Central Texas.

What Weather Is Expected Across South-Central Texas?

The weekend forecast is not uniform across the entire region.

The National Weather Service said rainfall would continue in portions of the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor could see isolated showers or storms, mainly during the afternoon.

The forecast graphic issued by the National Weather Service early Saturday showed higher rain probabilities in parts of western and northern areas of the South-Central Texas forecast region, while San Antonio and locations farther along the I-35 corridor had comparatively more limited chances.

This regional variation is important because the stalled front is not expected to produce uniform rainfall. Localised showers could develop in one area while conditions remain dry elsewhere.

What Is the Forecast for San Antonio on Sunday?

Sunday is expected to continue the pattern of occasional scattered showers, although most locations are expected to remain dry.

According to Franze’s report for the San Antonio Express-News, a few scattered showers could remain possible during Sunday morning, particularly before 10 a.m. The overall chance of rain for San Antonio was expected to be around 20%.

Temperatures were expected to climb into the lower 80s during Sunday afternoon.

Winds were also forecast to remain breezy, with some gusts potentially reaching approximately 30 mph. This means that even where rainfall is limited, outdoor conditions could remain noticeably windy.

The combination of cloud cover, occasional showers and breezy conditions means weekend weather may change from one part of the region to another.

How Much Rain Could Fall During the Weekend?

Rainfall totals are expected to be considerably lower than those recorded during Thursday and Friday.

Franze reported in the San Antonio Express-News that new rainfall totals between Saturday and Sunday were expected to remain below a quarter-inch in most areas. However, isolated locations, particularly northwest of San Antonio, could receive an inch of rain or more.

This represents a significant reduction from the rainfall totals associated with the earlier part of the week.

The difference also highlights the localised nature of the weekend forecast. While the general expectation is for light rainfall, isolated showers could produce higher totals in particular locations.

Residents planning outdoor activities therefore face a forecast in which rainfall is possible but not expected to affect every location equally.

How Wet Has San Antonio Been in 2026?

San Antonio’s rainfall during the opening days of October adds to a year that has already been wetter than the city’s typical annual pattern.

Franze reported that rainfall in San Antonio had been trending well above average during 2026. The city’s typical cumulative annual rainfall is approximately 32 inches, according to the report.

The official climate data also records the significant rainfall at the beginning of October. San Antonio’s weather station recorded 2.12 inches on October 1 and 0.49 inches on October 2.

The rainfall has therefore contributed to an already wet year rather than representing an isolated weather event.

The early-October rainfall also came with periods of flooding concern. Earlier in the week, the National Weather Service had warned about the potential for additional flooding because of the amount of rainfall and existing ground and water conditions.

What Happened During the Earlier Storms?

The weather system produced substantially more significant impacts before the weekend.

According to earlier reporting by the San Antonio Express-News, a flood watch covered the region as the cold front approached, with forecasts at the time calling for 1 to 4 inches of rain and isolated totals potentially reaching 8 inches. The forecast also included the possibility of strong winds, hail and flash flooding.

The National Weather Service warned that the front could stall over South-Central Texas, creating opportunities for additional storms to redevelop along the I-35 corridor between San Antonio and Austin.

The earlier rainfall also affected infrastructure and daily activity. MySA reported that nearly 2,900 CPS Energy customers in San Antonio remained without power as of Friday, with nine active outages linked to overnight storms.

Those conditions form the immediate background to the weekend forecast, although the expected rainfall intensity is considerably lower.

When Is the Wetter Pattern Expected to End?

A marked change is expected from Monday.

Franze reported for the San Antonio Express-News that a much drier weather pattern is expected to arrive Monday as significantly drier air moves into the region from the north. Rain chances are expected to end, with mostly sunny conditions forecast through much of the following week.

The forecast also indicates a gradual return to warmer daytime conditions after the weekend. The San Antonio Express-News reported expected highs of approximately 84 to 87 degrees Fahrenheit through the middle of the week, while overnight temperatures could fall into the mid-to-upper 60s.

Those overnight readings would represent some of the coolest nights San Antonio has experienced since May, according to the report.

Longer-range forecasts indicate that another opportunity for rain could develop around the following weekend, although that outlook remains uncertain.

What Does the Development Mean for Residents and Outdoor Plans?

For residents of San Antonio and surrounding areas, the weekend forecast indicates that rain remains possible but widespread disruption is not currently expected from the lower rainfall totals described in the forecast.

People with outdoor plans may encounter cloudy conditions, occasional showers and breezy winds. The possibility of isolated heavier rainfall means conditions can still differ significantly between neighbourhoods and communities.

The forecast is particularly relevant for areas northwest of San Antonio, where isolated rainfall of an inch or more is possible.

At the same time, the National Weather Service’s forecast shows that the broader South-Central Texas region will experience different levels of rainfall, with some areas retaining higher shower probabilities than San Antonio itself.

The transition to drier conditions from Monday is expected to provide a clear change from the wetter conditions experienced during the opening days of October.

What Is the Background to the October Weather Development?

The current weekend pattern follows the arrival of the first significant autumn cold front across South Texas.

Rather than immediately producing a sharp temperature decline, the front initially brought substantial rainfall to the region. Earlier forecasts from the National Weather Service identified the potential for the boundary to stall, allowing repeated showers and thunderstorms to develop.

San Antonio subsequently recorded 2.12 inches of rainfall on October 1 and another 0.49 inches on October 2 at the official weather station.

The rainfall contributed to flooding concerns and temporary infrastructure disruption before the immediate flood threat diminished on Friday. The weekend forecast now calls for substantially lower rainfall totals, although isolated showers remain possible.

What Could the Weather Pattern Mean for San Antonio Over the Coming Days?

The forecast indicates a transition from a wet opening to October towards a predominantly dry pattern beginning Monday.

For the weekend, the principal development is the continued possibility of scattered showers while the cold front remains in the region. Most locations are expected to receive limited rainfall, while isolated areas northwest of San Antonio could receive considerably more.

From Monday, the movement of drier air into South-Central Texas is expected to reduce rain chances and bring mostly sunny weather for much of the week. Daytime temperatures are forecast to rise towards the mid-80s, while overnight temperatures are expected to remain cooler.